The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

In this irreverent, yet scholarly work, a financial trader and philosopher contends that a deeper understanding of world events comes from paying close attention to impactful statistical improbabilities he refers to as "black swans," by studying outliers rather than norms. The essay blends anecdotes and fables with a survey of historical events, social sciences, philosophy, and statistics and illustrates the need for a world view that goes well beyond the often misplaced certainty found in the bell curve. Graphs and other visual aids throughout; includes a brief glossary and an extensive footnote section.